Pennsylvania Timber Market Report, Third Quarter, 2021
 
July - September 2021 Stumpage Prices
$ per MBF International 1/4"
Northeast Price Ranges by Species
| Species by Region | Minus 1 Std Dev | Average | Plus 1 Std Dev | N# |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Red Oak | $607 | $726 | $845 | 9 |
| White Oak | $536 | $646 | $756 | 7 |
| Mixed Oak | $399 | $533 | $668 | 7 |
| Black Cherry | $555 | $696 | $837 | 6 |
| White Ash | $0 | $296 | $0 | 1 |
| Hard Maple | $288 | $510 | $732 | 5 |
| Soft Maple | $281 | $418 | $555 | 11 |
| Yellow-Poplar | $283 | $346 | $408 | 2 |
| Misc. Hardwoods | $40 | $138 | $237 | 8 |
| White Pine | $0 | $65 | $0 | 1 |
| Hemlock | $54 | $99 | $145 | 3 |
Southeast Price Ranges by Species
| Species by Region | Minus 1 Std Dev | Average | Plus 1 Std Dev | N# |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Red Oak | $458 | $600 | $742 | 17 |
| White Oak | $520 | $612 | $705 | 16 |
| Mixed Oak | $377 | $454 | $531 | 17 |
| Black Cherry | $0 | $197 | $0 | 1 |
| White Ash | $231 | $244 | $257 | 2 |
| Hard Maple | $399 | $513 | $627 | 3 |
| Soft Maple | $194 | $265 | $336 | 11 |
| Yellow-poplar | $313 | $389 | $466 | 15 |
| Misc. Hardwoods | $167 | $221 | $274 | 16 |
| White Pine | $142 | $172 | $202 | 4 |
| Hemlock | $0 | $0 | $0 | 0 |
Northwest Price Ranges by Species
| Species by Region | Minus 1 Std Dev | Average | Plus 1 Std Dev | N# |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Red Oak | $396 | $557 | $719 | 15 |
| White Oak | $367 | $526 | $685 | 12 |
| Mixed Oak | $252 | $356 | $461 | 10 |
| Black Cherry | $424 | $686 | $948 | 22 |
| White Ash | $45 | $211 | $378 | 7 |
| Hard Maple | $369 | $491 | $613 | 24 |
| Soft Maple | $261 | $357 | $453 | 26 |
| Yellow-poplar | $151 | $217 | $283 | 13 |
| Misc. Hardwoods | $52 | $98 | $145 | 22 |
| White Pine | $7 | $64 | $121 | 3 |
| Hemlock | $27 | $44 | $61 | 4 |
Southwest Price Ranges by Species
| Species by Region | Minus 1 Std Dev | Average | Plus 1 Std Dev | N# |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Red Oak | $303 | $534 | $765 | 6 |
| White Oak | $356 | $620 | $883 | 6 |
| Mixed Oak | $197 | $346 | $495 | 6 |
| Black Cherry | $260 | $329 | $399 | 5 |
| White Ash | $71 | $181 | $291 | 2 |
| Hard Maple | $207 | $518 | $829 | 3 |
| Soft Maple | $190 | $293 | $396 | 4 |
| Yellow-poplar | $163 | $310 | $457 | 4 |
| Misc. Hardwoods | $102 | $176 | $251 | 6 |
| White Pine | $86 | $86 | $86 | 2 |
| Hemlock | $86 | $86 | $86 | 2 |
Conversion Factors
Doyle Price = 1.695 x International 1/4" Price
Scribner Price = 1.159 x International 1/4" Price
(n) is the number of responses used to calculate the price statistics.
Private and Other Public Pulpwood Stumpage
Hardwood Pulp ($/ton)
| Region | Low | Avg | High | (n)# |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northeast | 0 | |||
| Southeast | 0 | |||
| Northwest | $0.00 | $3.60 | $18.00 | 10 |
| Southwest | ^ | ^ | ^ | 1 |
Softwood Pulp ($/ton)
| Region | Low | Avg | High | (n)# |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northeast | 0 | |||
| Southeast | 0 | |||
| Northwest | $0.00 | $1.67 | $3.00 | 3 |
| Southwest | 0 |
Bureau of Forestry Pulpwood Stumpage
Hardwood Pulp ($/ton)
| Region | Low | Avg | High | (n)# |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northeast | $0.69 | $4.64 | $6.55 | 11 |
| Southeast | $3.45 | $4.14 | $4.83 | 3 |
| Northwest | $3.45 | $5.23 | $7.59 | 12 |
| Southwest | $4.14 | $4.48 | $5.17 | 3 |
Softwood Pulp ($/ton)
| Region | Low | Avg | High | (n)# |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northeast | ^ | ^ | ^ | 1 |
| Southeast | 0 | |||
| Northwest | 0 | |||
| Southwest | 0 |
Dr. Ray's Comments
Pennsylvania's timber stumpage market remains in a bullish trend in all regions, with prices continuing at the previous quarter's high levels. Cherry, red oak, and white oak remain strong in the northern tier; red and white oak are the strongest species in the southen tier. The only significant difference in this quarter's report from last quarter is a recovery in prices in the Northeast to the 1st quarter's high levels. Trendwise, the data is confirming a continued strong market. In fact, some small producers seem to be driven out of the market by the high price levels, as indicated by a number of "no production" and under-capacity production being reported across the state. This is resulting in some timber sellers finding little or no market for their logs in certain localities, especially in the southern tier. "Log availability" concerns allude to high cost and worker shortages in logging, but not to a shortage of available stumpage. Still plenty of wood out there.
Nothing in the bigger economic picture seems to hint at a significant change going forward. Housing starts remain moderate to strong, although weakening slightly; but wood consumption should remain bouyed by strong and increasing remodeling activity. Hardwood imports have cooled slightly from recent highs, with trans-oceanic transportation issues perhaps helping American and Canadian producers. Increasing diesel prices are driving up cost of production through the supply chain, and thereby increase consumer costs, which could and probably is contributing to a slight cooling in wood products markets. But order files remain full for the time, and worker shortages hint that it will take longer than usual to fill them, so prices will probably remain at inflated levels for the time being.
Summary
It's a sellers market for the time being. Barring a national economic crash or more climate change regulation or policy, it should stay that way for a while. High prices are the new normal until supply-chain technology improves to compensate for the shrinking U.S. workforce.
