Pennsylvania Timber Market Report, First Quarter, 2023
January - March 2023 Stumpage Prices
$ per MBF International 1/4"
Northeast Price Ranges by Species
| Species by Region | Minus 1 Std Dev | Average | Plus 1 Std Dev | N# |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Red Oak | $343 | $482 | $622 | 12 |
| White Oak | $315 | $482 | $648 | 11 |
| Mixed Oak | $228 | $373 | $518 | 13 |
| Black Cherry | $248 | $481 | $714 | 7 |
| White Ash | $73 | $173 | $273 | 3 |
| Hard Maple | $99 | $265 | $431 | 6 |
| Soft Maple | $183 | $263 | $343 | 14 |
| Yellow-Poplar | $171 | $316 | $460 | 4 |
| Misc. Hardwoods | $31 | $119 | $206 | 14 |
| White Pine | $19 | $51 | $83 | 6 |
| Hemlock | $2 | $45 | $88 | 4 |
Southeast Price Ranges by Species
| Species by Region | Minus 1 Std Dev | Average | Plus 1 Std Dev | N# |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Red Oak | $443 | $561 | $678 | 9 |
| White Oak | $501 | $687 | $873 | 9 |
| Mixed Oak | $352 | $421 | $490 | 10 |
| Black Cherry | $232 | $331 | $430 | 2 |
| White Ash | $254 | $306 | $358 | 2 |
| Hard Maple | $0 | $794 | $0 | 1 |
| Soft Maple | $207 | $249 | $291 | 6 |
| Yellow-poplar | $379 | $439 | $500 | 6 |
| Misc. Hardwoods | $222 | $253 | $285 | 8 |
| White Pine | $97 | $100 | $102 | 2 |
| Hemlock | $0 | $0 | $0 | 0 |
Northwest Price Ranges by Species
| Species by Region | Minus 1 Std Dev | Average | Plus 1 Std Dev | N# |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Red Oak | $236 | $346 | $456 | 22 |
| White Oak | $329 | $541 | $752 | 18 |
| Mixed Oak | $177 | $335 | $493 | 20 |
| Black Cherry | $210 | $382 | $554 | 25 |
| White Ash | $15 | $109 | $204 | 11 |
| Hard Maple | $236 | $367 | $497 | 25 |
| Soft Maple | $214 | $294 | $374 | 29 |
| Yellow-poplar | $69 | $152 | $235 | 7 |
| Misc. Hardwoods | $34 | $159 | $284 | 25 |
| White Pine | $0 | $49 | $112 | 7 |
| Hemlock | $6 | $69 | $132 | 5 |
Southwest Price Ranges by Species
| Species by Region | Minus 1 Std Dev | Average | Plus 1 Std Dev | N# |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Red Oak | $272 | $310 | $348 | 4 |
| White Oak | $312 | $416 | $520 | 4 |
| Mixed Oak | $240 | $299 | $358 | 4 |
| Black Cherry | $185 | $192 | $198 | 4 |
| White Ash | $122 | $147 | $171 | 2 |
| Hard Maple | $274 | $369 | $463 | 4 |
| Soft Maple | $204 | $287 | $370 | 4 |
| Yellow-poplar | $197 | $255 | $312 | 3 |
| Misc. Hardwoods | $0 | $372 | $851 | 4 |
| White Pine | $95 | $154 | $212 | 2 |
| Hemlock | $0 | $86 | $0 | 1 |
Conversion Factors
Doyle Price = 1.695 x International 1/4" Price
Scribner Price = 1.159 x International 1/4" Price
(n) is the number of responses used to calculate the price statistics.
Private and Other Public Pulpwood Stumpage
Hardwood Pulp ($/ton)
| Region | Low | Avg | High | N# |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northeast | $0.50 | $0.83 | $1.00 | 6 |
| Southeast | * | $2.76 | * | 2 |
| Northwest | $0.00 | $0.90 | $5.00 | 10 |
| Southwest | * | $1.00 | * | 2 |
Softwood Pulp ($/ton)
| Region | Low | Avg | High | N# |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northeast | ^ | ^ | ^ | 1 |
| Southeast | 0 | |||
| Northwest | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | 11 |
| Southwest | 0 |
^ No prices are reported for samples with only a single respondent.
* Ranges are not reported for samples with fewer than three respondents.
Bureau of Forestry Pulpwood Stumpage
Hardwood Pulp ($/ton)
| Region | Low | Avg | High | N# |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northeast | $1.03 | $4.41 | $11.72 | 9 |
| Southeast | * | $4.31 | * | 2 |
| Northwest | $3.79 | $5.81 | $7.59 | 7 |
| Southwest | 0 |
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| Region | Low | Avg | High | N# |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northeast | 0 | |||
| Southeast | 0 | |||
| Northwest | 0 | |||
| Southwest | 0 |
^ No prices are reported for samples with only a single respondent.
* Ranges are not reported for samples with fewer than three respondents.
Dr. Ray's Comments
The rebound in timber stumpage prices wasn't as strong as might have expected for first-quarter numbers. East side numbers rebounded, but to a level roughly 20% lower than first quarter of 2022. West side numbers continued a slow but steady decline for the fourth straight quarter, which roughly equals the length of the run-up in 2021 into 2022. So, the impact of the wild lumber price fluctuations of 2021 and 2022 seems to have played out, and "normal" moderate fluctuations in timber markets may prevail for the near future.
A week of visiting building component manufacturers last week (May 8 - 12) gave me the sense that we have returned to a period of normality. Most plants were saying they weren't busy, but they weren't slow either. Some seemed optimistic and were preparing for increasing levels of orders over the next few years by adding production capacity. Experts are saying they expect new-home demand to increase as younger buyers warm up to the higher mortgage interest rates that seem to be locked in by inflationary pressure. For hardwood stumpage, that probably means the market will at least hold at current levels for a while.
I wrote last quarter about pulpwood prices here, and the data this quarter confirms that prices remain very low (around $1 per ton) for hardwood pulpwood. Even worse, twelve reports of softwood pulpwood prices came in, all at $0 per ton. I guess the mulch producers are feeling pretty good right now.
