Late-Winter Hay Marketing Considerations

Assess Your Inputs

Producers should start by inventorying their inputs. For example, some producers across the state have already secured nitrogen and other fertilizer materials they plan to apply this spring. Other producers may have spread manure or litter last fall to cover their fertility needs. Take time to assess your seed, chemical, machinery, and fuel needs for this season and get some quotes for the cost of these inputs.

Producers who have already had products such as fuel and fertilizer delivered have insulated themselves against regional supply issues and global trade disruptions. Shipping complications in the Strait of Hormuz are expected to lead to higher shipping costs, increased uncertainty in shipping reliability, and delays in the transportation of commodities out of the Persian Gulf. Be aware that the delays seen today may take several months to correct, and those effects may be felt well into the growing season. Price differences in fuels and fertilizers during 2025 and 2026 are highlighted in Table 1.

Prices for select crop production inputs: No. 2 diesel and propane prices reported per gallon (delivered), fertilizer prices reported per ton (F.O.B. shipping). Data accessed from USDA-AMS Pennsylvania Biweekly Cost of Production Report, file accessed March 3, 2026.

Search biweekly updates of local cost of production reports. Historical data with prices and materials can be accessed and downloaded by utilizing search queries within the USDA-AMS website.

Assess Your Inventory and Storage

On-farm hay inventories should also be in the back of producers’ minds. For producers with empty barns, this may not be an issue. However, producers who need to save some hay for their livestock should take a look at feeding records to help estimate how much hay to save until pastures resume growing. Producers who have regularly scheduled sales should look at their sales records to determine how much hay to save until harvest resumes. And producers who are entirely sold out might consider buying hay for resale to prevent losing repeat customers.

If you’re still sitting on considerable hay inventory, it’s sometimes hard to decide when to worry. Some producers actually plan to save most of their sales for late winter to capitalize on high markets and low supplies – should you try to recover any increased storage costs from retaining hay for a few extra months?

What Do Markets Show?

Market data is available for major auction outlets through weekly USDA-AMS reports, by following weekly reports in newspapers such as Lancaster Farming, or by tracking local listings on Facebook Marketplace. Since most reports list hay prices 'per ton', convert any prices you see 'per bale' to a 'per ton' basis to compare them correctly.

A summary of market performance from the Wolgemuth hay auctions in Lancaster County is listed below in Table 2. Note the differences in quantities delivered and price received per ton, based on location, bale package, hay type, and auction date.

Prices for select types, grades, and packages of hay. 'NH' – New Holland report, 'L' – Leola report. Data accessed from USDA-AMS Pennsylvania Hay Auction Report, file accessed March 3, 2026.

A direct link to weekly updates of local hay auction reports can be found at hay reports online. Historical data with prices, quantities, and forage species classifications can be accessed and downloaded by utilizing search queries within the USDA-AMS website.

So far in early 2026, hay auction volume is approximately 50-65% lower than the volume seen at these auctions during early 2025. Whether that is due to lower hay inventories or lower utilization of auctions as a market is undetermined. However, producers can certainly look at market data and patterns to gauge overall trends in the mid-Atlantic region.

Make Profitable Decisions

Two of the most important processes for reviewing crop profitability are tracking your forage yields and your costs of production. Remember that your cost of production per ton is a function of a) your total yield, and b) your total costs. A good rule of thumb is that the crop cost of production is decreased by either a) improving yield, or b) lowering costs, understanding that changes must be done carefully. Some simple methods to improve either yield or production costs are:

1. Selecting high-yielding forages adapted to your area
2. Managing soil fertility in the 'optimum' range
3. Harvesting crops at the correct stage of maturity
4. Managing machinery costs through outright ownership, lease, or custom-hire
5. Increasing labor efficiency during handling or hauling

Have you updated your cost of production lately? Some short-term assets, such as fertilizer, are extremely sensitive to factors like crude oil prices, seasonality, global politics and trade agreements, and local hauling and handling. Other long-term assets, such as machinery and storage buildings, are more susceptible to long-term trends in supplies or manufacturing. Labor and land are two production costs that also add up quickly – keeping good records of field operations, land rent, and real estate taxes are useful for placing an estimate on these costs. A good practice is to update crop budgets each winter, so you can calculate the previous year’s profitability and estimate the coming year's costs.

The 2025 Penn State Agronomy Guide contains sample budgets for alfalfa, alfalfa-grass, and grass hay production systems. These budgets were developed using the most current data available at the time and used a blended average of auction price data. They are formatted to guide a producer through the process of budgeting crop costs and have a blank column to add your own estimates. Reach out to your local Extension office if you need help calculating your own production costs, so you can determine what sales point is profitable for your operation.