Fertilizer Recap: It Pays to Pay Attention to Prices

Fertilizer prices have received much attention in the past few months. Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, industry consolidation, and pressure on material logistics have led to a $356 per ton (63%) increase in the price of bulk urea since January 2026[1]. With price volatility in mind, producers should think about the following two elements – the use of manure and how fertilizer prices tend to behave.

Understand What Manure Provides

Pennsylvania has an abundance of animal manure available for use from our dairy, beef, poultry, and swine herds. One useful tool for utilizing manure in forage production systems is a standard manure analysis from the Penn State Agricultural Analytical Services Lab. The standard manure analysis will provide nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium content on a pounds per ton or pounds per 1,000-gallon basis. Average book values are suitable in a pinch, but testing manure nutrient content is the best way to confirm what nutrients are provided in a manure application. Consider the example below, where one Pennsylvania farm compared their own manure stocks to average book values:

In this scenario, the producer found that the two materials (aged dairy compost and fresh beef manure) were highly variable in their nutrient content, which impacts soil test recommendations and management strategies for using these products. If the farmer applied manure based on book values, they would be overapplying phosphorus, and underapplying nitrogen compared to the actual tests. Specifically, if manure was applied according to book values, Manure B would not have provided adequate potassium, which might lead to lower crop yields. Another major component to consider is the economic cost of these products. At current fertilizer prices, the economic value of these materials varied significantly[3].

Understand Synthetic Fertilizer Price Behavior

Tracking historical fertilizer prices allows for improved management decision-making about when and how much fertilizer to purchase. For example, suppose a soil test recommends 180 pounds of potassium per acre for the next three years of a crop rotation. A manure test and spreader calibration reveals that manure can provide 85 of the 180 required pounds, leaving 95 pounds of potassium required to balance the soil test recommendation. Since potassium can be built up and drawn down over several years of the rotation, the producer has the option of holding their application until they feel prices have reached a lower level.

By sorting historical price data, they find the following details:

*USDA-AMS Production Cost Reports began on February 2, 2024.

 Analyzing historical prices revealed that prices of muriate of potash (0-0-60) have been relatively stable for the past 3 seasons, and purchasing potassium is probably an economical decision – prices are near the low of their historical cycle. In fact, a recent DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends report suggested current prices for potassium fertilizer are about $120 per ton less than 5-year averages. What do you do?

Another useful tool is forward contracting, or pre-ordering nitrogen fertilizer materials. Consider the difference in urea price behavior in the years listed here:

*USDA-AMS Production Cost Reports began on February 2, 2024.

 Prices of urea (46-0-0) have been relatively volatile for the past 3 seasons, and prices have recently spiked. This recent DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends report suggested that current urea fertilizer prices are about $200 per ton more than 5-year historical average. However, earlier this year, there was an opportunity to purchase urea at prices close to or below historical levels. An application of 220 pounds of urea (to supply 100 pounds of actual nitrogen) would cost about $39.20 more per acre if urea was purchased in May rather than in January.

Tracking these prices can provide strategic timing for purchasing these materials. Price fluctuations are nothing new in the agricultural industry, but careful planning can help mitigate the risks of input volatility. Although in-season urea price increases are not typically as dramatic as this year, in-season purchases often compete with urea demand from midwestern states looking to sidedress corn acres. A safe strategy may be to purchase some of, but not all, your required fertilizer inventory prior to the season if prices seem favorable. Accounting for manure nutrient content is another effective way to minimize, if not eliminate, your purchased fertilizer needs.

[1] USDA-AMS Bi-Weekly Cost of Production Report, Pennsylvania. Prices reported F.O.B.

[2] The 2025 Penn State Agronomy Guide, Table 1.2-10. Typical Pennsylvania average daily production and total nutrient content of manure.

[3] Economic value calculated by the Penn State Manure N-P-K Economic Value Calculator