The Office of Fossil Energy of the Department of Energy (DOE) is seeking comments on its fifth study on liquid natural gas (LNG) exports. The study looks at three baseline situations based on Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2017 projections, as well as the International Energy Outlook (IEO) 2017, and provides 54 scenarios based on assumptions from the data.
“Macroeconomic Outcomes of Market Determined Levels of US LNG Exports Study” is unique from other studies in that a larger number of scenarios are considered to cover a wider range of uncertainty in the natural gas markets, as well as looks at unconstrained LNG export volumes, and no constraints from DOE.
The study, prepared by NERA Economic Consulting Inc. suggests that ‘overall US economic output is higher whenever global markets call for higher levels of LNG exports, assuming that exports are allowed to be determined by market demand.’
Based on probabilistic analysis of the 54 scenarios, LNG exports in 2040 are expected to range from 8.7 to 30.7 billion cubic feet per day (BCF/d). Four areas of uncertainty that would affect US LNG exports are natural gas supply conditions in the US, natural gas demand in the US, natural gas supply availability globally, and natural gas demand globally.
The study can be found on DOE’s website