Dairy Product Trends - Ice Cream

As with fluid milk consumption, ice cream consumption, on the whole, in the United States is also declining. As of 2018, on a per capita basis, total ice cream consumption in the U.S. has declined 19%. Where once the average person was consuming in excess of 22 pounds of ice cream each year, as of 2018 they are only eating a little over 18 pounds. 

Figure 1. Per Capita Consumption, Frozen Dairy Products

Most of the decline in consumption can be attributed to a decline in regular ice cream, as opposed to reduced fat ice cream.  Regular ice cream consumption has decreased almost 26% between 2000 and 2018.

As expected, with decreases in consumption, there is also a corresponding decrease in production. At the national level (Figure 2), ice cream production has decreased by more than 139 million pounds from 2000 to 2018, a decrease of 14.25%. There does appear to be a cyclical nature to the overall declining trend however, with production increasing for a couple of years prior to a decline for a similar number of years.

Figure 2. U.S. Ice Cream Production

Long considered a routine treat, ice cream has become an indulgence particularly for those desiring to decrease fat and sugar consumption. However, ice cream still enjoys high (76%) penetration among consumers surveyed with 88% of households with children and 78% of child-free households purchasing it (Mintel, 2019).

Across all generations, indulgence tops as the most important factor in the purchase of ice cream. This was also the most important factor for the iGeneration and GenX groups. Millennials rated indulgence and being a new flavor as most important to them. Baby Boomers and the WWII/Swing generation were driven most by natural ingredients (Mintel, 2017).

Preference for ice cream package size has experienced a shift in recent years. As recently as 2017, half gallons were the most purchased size, with 52% of all consumers purchasing this size compared to 34% of consumers purchasing pints (Mintel, 2017). In 2019, pints are the most popular product size across all age ranges, but especially with millennials. This is interestingly, the purchase of pints increased as household size increased from one to four members, with 36% of consumers in a household of four purchasing pints as compared to 31% of single person households (Mintel, 2019). As expected, households of 5 or more were most likely to purchase a gallon size container.

The smaller pint size offers benefits to both consumer and ice cream makers. Consumers have the ability to satisfy cravings (47%), try new flavors (32%), purchase a variety of flavors, as well as control their ice cream intake with smaller package sizes (Mintel, 2019). Men were more likely than women to indicate trying a new flavor as their reason for purchasing a pint size, while women were more likely than men to indicate indulging and portion control as reasons for pint purchases (Mintel, 2019).

Pints offer ice cream makers the ability to offer unique mixtures and ingredient combinations while maintaining a level of quality that may be difficult to control in larger sizes, such as half gallons or quarts. Pints also assist when offering limited-edition or seasonal flavors. These may be flavors that are unfamiliar to consumers and the ability to purchase a small amount can often be enough to prompt them to try it; similar to sampling at an ice cream shop.

Traditional flavors such as vanilla, chocolate, and strawberry remain favorites in the marketplace, with all three flavors falling in the top ten (IDFA). However, consumers indicate that new flavors and textures prompt them to purchase. Indeed, 38% of those 18-34 years old, 39% of those 35-54 years old, and 37% of those 55 and older all indicated different flavor rating as the top purchase decision driver (Mintel, 2019). Changing seasons and holidays offer opportunity to tap into consumer desire for new and different flavors.  

The data and trends described above are valuable for small-scale dairy processor strategic business and marketing planning and decision-making. While local differences may be observed in consumer trends for ice cream consumption, the trends and preferences outlined above can serve as a starting point for an individual value-added dairy enterprise's marketing research.

Resources

Berry, D. July 25, 2017. Slideshow: The power of pint-size innovation. Food Business News. Accessed 12/16/19.

International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA). What's Hot in Ice Cream.  Accessed 12/13/19.

Mintel. 2019. Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties – US – May 2019.

Mintel. 2017. Ice Cream – US – April 2017.

USDA Economic Research Service. Per Capita Consumption. Accessed November 18, 2019.

USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service.  Ice Cream Production. Accessed December 13, 2019.