2026 Wheat Tour Predicts Low Yields and Vom

During the second week of June, local millers, grain brokers, and agronomists toured Pennsylvania wheat growing regions in an annual effort to estimate new crop yield and quality.

Average yields presented below were estimated several weeks before harvest, and randomly sampled from a few locations in large fields using the protocol outlined at "Home Stretch: Evaluating Your Small Grain Crops" (Image 1). One yield component that we did not measure in the tour is kernel weight, as it was too early in the plant's development for that. Our yield estimate formula assumes a fixed kernel weight. Additionally, since the tour, we have experienced isolated storms with heavy rainfall and wind, which may cause lodging losses in some fields, which will lower yields compared to our estimates. Therefore, these estimates may not reflect actual harvest yields. 

Yield Estimates

Twelve fields were toured in the South Central region (Adams, Franklin, and York Counties), while five fields were toured in the Southeast (Berks, Lancaster, and Lebanon Counties). Average yield estimate, range, seven-year average yield estimate (2019-2025), and yield components are listed in the table below.

 Yields estimates were significantly lower than 2025 and the long-term average. In the Southeast, we estimated that we are down 15 percent. We counted about ten fewer heads per row across farms, while other yield components remained similar to average. The reduced tillering could have been due to a combination of drought and cold stress this fall and winter. 

The South Central region seemed somewhat more affected, with yields down 24 percent from average. Tiller counts were comparable to last year, while the average spikelets per head dropped from 14.3 in 2025 to 12.4 in 2026, and the average kernels per spikelet dropped from 2.8 in 2025 to 2.2 in 2026. This indicates that, not only was wheat stressed from the drought during Feekes four to 5.5, it was likely also stressed to some degree at some point between about three weeks before flowering, until about a week after flowering. 

Regardless of location, the wheat crop suffered severely from the drought this year, and potentially from the deep cold winter and surprise freezes in April. 

Crop Management

Almost all fields were planted in the second week of October, with a few exceptions that were planted in late September or the first week of October.  Seeding rates were highly variable, and provided as both seeds and pounds per acre, ranging from 1.1 to 1.8 million seeds per acre, and 150 to 200 pounds of seed per acre. Wheat seed size can vary considerably, from about 10,000 to 15,000 seeds per pound, based on values from the University of Nebraska and Oklahoma State Extension. Therefore, 150 to 200 pounds per acre could range from 1.5 million to three million seeds per acre, depending on seed size. Commercial varieties were used except for one field in Franklin County, which used bin-run seed. 

Wheat was most frequently preceded by soybeans, but was occasionally planted after corn. Common fall management included chicken litter, cow manure, or synthetic fertilizer, though several Franklin County farmers skipped all fall fertility in 2025. Spring nitrogen was almost exclusively split between two applications and was commonly applied with sulfur. 

Drilled wheat was most common, but several growers in the South Central region plant 15-inch rows, and one field was planted in 10-inch rows. 

Growth regulator was used on the majority of fields, but less so than in recent years. The cold, dry winter resulted in slow growth this spring, so this input was eliminated at several sites, with little to no impact on lodging.

Early fungicides were used sparingly due to the dry weather early in the spring, and therefore, a poor environment for disease development.  Fungicide (Prosaro Pro dominated) was applied at flowering to nearly all fields. After the terrible scab levels in 2025, growers were ready to apply timely measures to ward off the disease this year.

Disease and Insect Pests

Despite some moisture around flowering, fusarium head blight (scab) incidence was very low across locations.  According to the Fusarium Head Blight Prediction Center, scab risk was low to moderate for varieties with moderate resistance to scab during the week or two around flowering. With less favorable weather for disease development this year, plus most growers choosing favorable genetics and accomplishing timely sprays, only minimal scab is showing itself in the field.

Powdery mildew was widespread, generally at low to moderate levels, but present at high levels in the canopy of some fields. Stagnospora Glume blotch was noted in several fields at low to moderate levels, and Septoria leaf blotch was noted in multiple fields. Severe leaf rust was noted at one field in Franklin County.  

Cereal leaf beetle damage was present in several fields, but was very minor. English grain aphids (Image 2) and their associated predators, lady beetles, were noted in multiple fields. Aphids tend to favor dry weather, so the ongoing drought explains their presence. Despite aphids transmitting barley yellow dwarf virus (BYDV), no symptoms of that disease were observed at any location this year, so perhaps the pest did not appear in fields until later this spring.  

Abiotic Issues

Several fields had low levels of frost damage due to some frigid low temperatures in April across both regions. The bleaching and twisted heads and awns associated with this type of damage were noted in almost every county included in the Pennsylvania tour. The impact of drought has already been discussed earlier with the yield components.

Summary

A missing piece of the wheat tour is profitability. Understanding your cost of production and your buyer's toxin thresholds and discount schedule are vital for dialing in your wheat management. In other words, what good is 100% vom-free, high-yielding wheat if it is not profitable? Carefully scrutinizing your inputs and the value they provide is essential for maintaining profitability. 

During the tour, fields were at the milk stage, transitioning to soft dough, so it was a bit early to detect scab at the time of the tour for some fields. Last year, we published a report touting low levels of vom, and were promptly proven wrong as the disease developed over the few weeks following the report. This year, we are more confident in the low reported levels of scab/vom, as we waited an extra week to publish this report, and have not noted increased scab levels during this time.

With harvest to begin in the next week or two, we hope yield and quality will not deteriorate, though we have already seen some lodging from scattered thunderstorms. Overall, we expect low vomitoxin levels due to minimal scab presence this year. However, other quality parameters, such as test weight and falling number, could be impacted by the widespread powdery mildew, glume blotch, and continued rain. Though the quality should be close to average, we expect a 20 percent reduction in yield.